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Space systems — Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)
This document defines the principles, process, implementation and requirements for conducting a quantitative risk assessment and explains the details of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as applied to safety. While PRA can be applied to project risk management involving cost and schedule, this application is outside the scope of this document.
This document provides the basic requirements and procedures for the use of PRA techniques to assess safety or mission risk and success in space programmes and projects. This document is applicable to all international space projects involving:
— the design of space vehicles for the transportation of personnel in space;
— the design of space and non-terrestrial planetary stations inhabited by human beings;
— the design of space and launch vehicles powered by, or carrying, nuclear materials;
— other projects as directed by the authorities or clients.
These types of projects generally involve scenarios, chains of events or activities that could result in the death of, or serious injury to, members of the public, astronauts or pilots, or the workforce, or the loss of critical or high-value equipment and property. For other types of projects, it is intended that PRA be performed at the discretion of the project management.
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